Rehabilitating the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain (including the chenier plain region) depends on developing interdisciplinary programs in coastal science and engineering to reduce the high rates of land loss and rehabilitate degraded natural resources in this unique river delta region.  The Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) program was formulated to build conceptual ecological and predictive models to connect ecosystem needs and opportunity with engineering design.  These included a linked set of physical and ecological models.  The physical models forecast endpoints of salinity, hydroperiod, and sediment distribution.  From this geophysical footprint, predictions were made of geomorphic features and shifts in land to water distribution. Ecological forecast then simulated changes in habitat type, habitat use and conditions of water quality. This set of linked models provides the basis for an ecosystem forecasting system (geophysical processes, geomorphic features, water quality conditions, and ecological succession) evaluating alternative designs of engineering projects based on the projected response of the ecosystem. The development and application of the models supports a strong adaptive management approach of existing and future projects, defining a body of knowledge by which hypotheses and assumptions will be continuously evaluated to incrementally reduce uncertainty. 

CLEAR has developed a modeling tool that has been used in the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) planning exercise to evaluate restoration alternatives along with environmental benefits using a combination of modules that predict physical processes, geomorphic features, and ecological succession. This modeling program has documented the assumptions and limitations of such an effort, and provided guidance to improve upon this procedure to reduce scientific uncertainty in model forecasts of restoration projects.  In the proposed work, the CLEAR program will continue to develop conceptual and simulation models to further develop an ecosystem forecasting system that integrates the elements of a comprehensive monitoring and adaptive management program within the LCA to evaluate environmental benefits in extended subprovince 1 and coastal ecosystems of Mississippi.  It will help answer such questions as what will happen to the Mississippi River Deltaic Plain under different scenarios of restoration alternatives, and what will be the benefits to society.